Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020.

As of January 2021, Australia had effectively controlled local transmission of COVID-19 despite a steady influx of imported cases and several local, but contained, outbreaks in 2020. Throughout 2020, state and territory public health responses were informed by weekly situational reports that included an ensemble forecast of daily COVID-19 cases for each jurisdiction. We present here an analysis of one forecasting model included in this ensemble across the variety of scenarios experienced by each jurisdiction from May to October 2020. We examine how successfully the forecasts characterised future case incidence, subject to variations in data timeliness and completeness, showcase how we adapted these forecasts to support decisions of public health priority in rapidly-evolving situations, evaluate the impact of key model features on forecast skill, and demonstrate how to assess forecast skill in real-time before the ground truth is known. Conditioning the model on the most recent, but incomplete, data improved the forecast skill, emphasising the importance of developing strong quantitative models of surveillance system characteristics, such as ascertainment delay distributions. Forecast skill was highest when there were at least 10 reported cases per day, the circumstances in which authorities were most in need of forecasts to aid in planning and response.

Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic.

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).

Development of an influenza pandemic decision support tool linking situational analytics to national response policy.

National influenza pandemic plans have evolved substantially over recent decades, as has the scientific research that underpins the advice contained within them. While the knowledge generated by many research activities has been directly incorporated into the current generation of pandemic plans, scientists and policymakers are yet to capitalise fully on the potential for near real-time analytics to formally contribute to epidemic decision-making. Theoretical studies demonstrate that it is now possible to make robust estimates of pandemic impact in the earliest stages of a pandemic using first few hundred household cohort (FFX) studies and algorithms designed specifically for analysing FFX data. Pandemic plans already recognise the importance of both situational awareness i.e., knowing pandemic impact and its key drivers, and the need for pandemic special studies and related analytic methods for estimating these drivers. An important next step is considering how information from these situational assessment activities can be integrated into the decision-making processes articulated in pandemic planning documents. Here we introduce a decision support tool that directly uses outputs from FFX algorithms to present recommendations on response options, including a quantification of uncertainty, to decision makers. We illustrate this approach using response information from within the Australian influenza pandemic plan.

Epilepsy during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown: a US population survey.

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to understand issues facing people with epilepsy (PWE) during the lockdown period of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using a 20-question survey that used SeziureTracker.com, sent to eligible PWE and their caregivers on May 6th, 2020. Questions about demographics and medical history were used to calculate COVID mortality risk odds ratios (OR) compared to a low baseline risk group. RESULTS: In total, 505 responses were collected. Of these, 71% reported no change in seizure rates and 25% reported an increase in seizures, which they attributed primarily to disrupted sleep (63%) and decreased exercise (42%). Mortality risks from COVID-19 had median OR of 1.67, ranging 1.00-906.98. Fear about hospitalization (53%) and concern for loved ones (52%) were prominent concerns. Of the respondents, 5% reported stopping or reducing anti-seizure medications due to problems communicating with doctors, access or cost. Lower-risk COVID patients reported more fear of hospitalization (55% versus 38%, p<0.001) and anxiety about medication access (43% versus 28%, p=0.03) compared with higher-risk COVID patients. Increased anxiety was reported in 47%, and increased depression in 28%. Ten percent without generalized convulsions and 8% with did not know anything about epilepsy devices (VNS, RNS, DBS). SIGNIFICANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic presents unique challenges to PWE, including increased seizure rates, problems with access and cost of life-saving medications. Those with lower COVID-19 risk may have been marginalized more than those with higher risk. Efforts to protect PWE during major public health emergencies should take these findings into account.

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia.

The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed and essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed, along with ongoing strengthening of capacity.